Methodology notes: Forbes, Kelchen, and what this screen adds

Every report in the library carries two outside reference points: the Forbes College Financial Grade and Robert Kelchen's ten-year IPEDS trend. I include them because they are the two best public measures of a private college's financial condition, and because a reader deserves to see where this screen agrees with them and where it does not. Neither is a factor in the screen's rating. They are printed as context, so that a family can check this screen against sources that do not depend on me. This page explains what each one does well, what it was not designed to do, and what this screen adds.

Robert Kelchen's IPEDS analysis

Professor Robert Kelchen (University of Tennessee, Knoxville) publishes the analysis of college finances that families and journalists most often rely on, and for good reason. It is built from the Department of Education's IPEDS data, which every college must file. His June 2026 update covers 2,779 public and private nonprofit institutions and compares fiscal 2015 with fiscal 2024 on net margin, the number of loss years over the decade, enrollment change, and endowment (or state appropriations for public institutions). He explains his choices, shows his work, and posts the entire dataset as a spreadsheet for anyone to check.

Three things make it valuable here: it is consistent across every school, it shows a decade rather than a snapshot, and it is free. The reports in this library print a Kelchen row on every school for exactly that reason.

The limit is one he would state himself. IPEDS finance data arrive about two years after the fiscal year closes, so the newest year in the June 2026 release is fiscal 2024. A decade trend is the right way to see slow erosion. It cannot see a covenant breach last month.

Forbes College Financial Grades

Forbes has published College Financial Grades for private nonprofit colleges for more than a decade, and they have become the one financial measure a family is likely to have heard of. The 2026 edition, published May 22, 2026, grades more than 900 private not-for-profit colleges with enrollment above 500, from A+ to D, on what Forbes describes as operational soundness and balance sheet strength. The strength of a letter grade is that it is legible: a parent can see a D and know to ask questions. The list is on Forbes.com for subscribers, and I encourage any family to look a school up there.

The grade is printed on every report in this library as a reference point, letter only, with attribution. It is not an input to the screen's rating.

Its limits are the ones built into any annual grade. It is a single composite, so two schools with the same grade can be in very different situations. It covers private colleges only, so a public regional university has no grade. And the financial statements behind a grade published in May are a year or more old, so a school's condition can change materially between editions.

What this screen adds

The screen is built on top of Kelchen and Forbes, not against them. Every report prints both, and when the screen disagrees with them the report says why. What it adds comes down to three things.

Timeliness. Public datasets close about two years behind. The screen reads the newest audited financial statements as they post to the Federal Audit Clearinghouse, bond documents and continuing disclosures on EMMA within days of filing, the Department of Education's Heightened Cash Monitoring lists, accreditor actions, and local and student newspapers. In October 2026 that means fiscal 2025 results and fall 2026 enrollment for many schools, while the public measures still end at fiscal 2024.

Breadth. Ratios describe a balance sheet. The events that precede a closure usually show up somewhere else first: an auditor's going-concern paragraph, a covenant waiver from a lender, a rating downgrade, a draw on the endowment above policy, a mid-year round of program cuts, a president leaving without a successor, an accreditor's warning. The screen looks for those in four families of sources (financial statements, bonds and ratings, federal and accreditor actions, governance and operations) and weighs them against each other.

Coverage and form. Public regional universities, which Forbes does not grade, are rated on the same ladder as private colleges. And each school gets a one-page reading written for a family: what the signals are, what offsets them, and what to ask the school before depositing, rather than a single score.

The result is visible in the library. Of the roughly 1,000 schools screened to date, a substantial share of those rated Moderate Concern or higher carry a Forbes grade of C or better, or no Kelchen flag at all. The reasons are almost always events that happened after the public data closed, or that a ratio cannot see. The summary below shows the categories.

[Embed: Why the screen sees more, no-names display]

What this screen does not do

The screen has limits of its own, and they belong on this page too. It is not a prediction of closure and it is not financial advice. A college can carry a High Concern rating for years and stay open, and a college with no flag can surprise everyone. It depends on what is public: audited statements, bond filings, federal lists, accreditor actions and the press. It cannot see a board's private deliberations or next year's budget. It uses judgment, so every rating carries a confidence level and a stated basis for each change, and a reader who disagrees with a placement can see the evidence and decide for themselves. Where it is wrong, the next screen says so. The history of every rating is kept.

Sources named on this page

Robert Kelchen, "An Updated Look at the Financial Health of American Higher Education", June 8, 2026, robertkelchen.com. Forbes, "College Financial Grades 2026", May 22, 2026, forbes.com (subscription). Federal Audit Clearinghouse (fac.gov). EMMA, the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board's disclosure service (emma.msrb.org). U.S. Department of Education Heightened Cash Monitoring lists (studentaid.gov).